Half a grade is rarely half the price

What a half grade is

PSA added half grades on 1 February 2008, from 1.5 up to 8.5. There is no PSA 9.5. PSA said at the time that it saw no need for a third Mint grade between its Mint 9 and Gem Mint 10.

A half grade is meant for a card that is an exceptional example of its grade: an 8 that is very nearly a 9. PSA noted that centring has a large say in where a card lands.

Beckett's scale works differently. It has half grades all the way up, including 9.5, which it calls Gem Mint, and above that a Pristine 10. For pre-1981 cards it grades under its vintage label, BVG, with a single overall grade and no subgrades.

How we measured it

For every card on this index, we looked for half grades with at least two copies on offer, and compared them with at least two copies at the whole grade below, from the same grader, with no qualifier. Where there were also two or more copies at the whole grade above, we worked out where the half grade sits in the gap: zero means it prices like the grade below, one means it prices like the grade above, and a half would be exactly in the middle.

We did the same with recorded sales where there were enough. Some of these comparisons rest on two or three copies, so the individual figures move around a lot. The pattern across them is what counts.

PSA: about a fifth more, a quarter of the way

Across 21 PSA comparisons on asking prices, the median half grade asked about 1.2 times the whole grade below. Where we could also price the grade above, the half grade sat about a quarter of the way across the gap.

Recorded sales tell the same story with fewer cases: about 1.17 times the grade below, and about a third of the way to the next grade.

The clearest single example is the 1986-87 Fleer Michael Jordan, the card with the most copies to compare. A PSA 8.5 asked about 1.6 times a PSA 8, while a PSA 9 asked about 2.7 times. In recorded sales, the 8.5 brought about 1.4 times an 8, and the 9 about three times. On that card, the half grade gets you less than a fifth of the way from 8 to 9 in sales.

On the 2000 Bowman Tom Brady, the gap almost closes. A PSA 8.5 asked about a fifth more than an 8, and in the sales we have, it sold for about the same.

Low grades: the half point barely registers

Lower down the scale the picture blurs. On several cards, including the 1953 Topps and 1952 Bowman Mantles and the Fleer Jordan, a 2.5, 3.5 or 4.5 sometimes asked less than the whole grade below. That is unlikely to mean the half grade is worth less. More likely it shows how little a half point means at those grades, and how far individual asking prices wander.

Where the sales are clearer, on the 1953 Topps Mantle, a PSA 1.5 sold for about 1.3 times a 1, and a 2.5 for about 1.17 times a 2: in both cases about a third of the way to the next whole grade.

Beckett's 9.5 is not a half step

The exception is at the top of Beckett's scale, and it is large. On the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr., a BGS 9.5 asked about five times a BGS 9, and in recorded sales brought about 4.6 times.

Compare the half step below it on the same card. A BGS 8.5 sold for about 1.2 times a BGS 8, while a 9 sold for about 2.5 times. That is an ordinary half grade. The 9.5 is not.

The reason is the name. A Beckett 9.5 is Gem Mint, the grade Beckett buyers chase in much the way PSA buyers chase a 10. A Beckett 9 is merely Mint. The step from 9 to 9.5 is a step from one tier to another, which is why it behaves like the step from a PSA 9 to a PSA 10, not like a half grade. We looked at that last step in what the last grade point costs.

What to take from it

Do not pay half the gap for a half grade. On PSA cards, an 8.5 usually prices a quarter to a third of the way from the 8 to the 9, and sometimes barely above the 8. If an 8.5 is offered at the midpoint, it is priced high.

Look at the card, not the half. A half grade says the card is a strong example of its grade, and often the reason is centring. If you can see why it earned the half point, that is worth paying for. The same card in an 8 holder may look identical, and copies within one grade vary widely anyway, as we found in how far apart identical grades are priced.

Treat a Beckett 9.5 as a different tier. It is not a 9 with a little extra. It is the grade most Beckett buyers are aiming for, and it is priced that way.

Expect the half grade to matter more near the top. At the low grades the half point is mostly noise. At 8.5 it is a real, if modest, premium.

We have also measured what a qualifier costs and how the same grade prices across PSA, Beckett and SGC.

The thing worth sitting with

A half grade is a grader's way of saying a card nearly made the next step. The market hears it and pays a little for it, but not much, because nearly is not the same as made.

The one place that changes is where the label itself changes. A Beckett 9.5 is not nearly a 10. It is Gem Mint, and buyers pay for the word.

You can read how we work the numbers out.

Sources